Deloitte Forecast: Retail Holiday Sales To Climb 5 To 5.6 Percent

| September 19, 2018

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Retail holiday sales are expected to increase a robust 5 to 5.6 percent over last year’s shopping season, according to Deloitte’s annual retail holiday sales forecast.Deloitte’s retail and distribution practice expects total holiday sales (seasonally adjusted and excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) to exceed $1.10 trillion between November and January.Additionally, Deloitte forecasts a 17 to 22 percent increase in e-commerce sales in 2018 compared with 16.6 percent in 2017. E-commerce sales are expected to reach $128 to $134 billion during the 2018 holiday season. “The anticipated growth in holiday sales is likely because of solid disposable personal income growth, which we expect will be in the 5 to 5.4 percent range. That is above last year’s 4.7 percent,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. “A strong labor market should also aid retail spending, along with elevated consumer confidence and a stable personal savings rate of around 7 percent.”

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